Renewable Energy Outlook 2024-2030: Key Trends from the IEA’s Renewables 2024 Report

According to the IEA, global renewable capacity is projected to grow by 2.7 times by 2030. This significant expansion is expected to exceed current ambitions by nearly 25%, though it still falls short of the ideal target of tripling capacity. Climate and energy security policies from nearly 140 countries have played a vital role in driving this growth, making renewable energy cost-competitive with fossil fuel-based power plants.
The IEA’s main case projects 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity by 2030, with annual installations reaching nearly 940 GW by the end of the decade—a 70% increase from the record levels achieved in recent years.

Over the next six years, the renewable energy sector will reach several key milestones, reflecting the increasing dominance of clean energy sources:

• 2024: Solar PV and wind generation will surpass hydropower generation for the first time.
• 2025: Renewables-based electricity generation will overtake coal-fired power generation globally.
• 2026: Wind and solar power generation will surpass nuclear power generation.
• 2027: Solar PV electricity generation will surpass wind power.
• 2029: Solar PV electricity generation will surpass hydropower and become the largest renewable power source.
• 2030: Wind-based generation will surpass hydropower as the second-largest renewable energy source.

These milestones illustrate the rapid acceleration of renewable energy generation and the significant shift in the global energy mix.

​The report identifies two primary drivers for renewable energy expansion through 2030: solar PV and China.

​Solar PV is expected to account for a staggering 80% of the total growth in renewable energy by the end of the decade. This surge in solar power adoption is driven by several factors, including declining costs, shorter permitting timelines, and widespread social acceptance. In particular, residential and commercial consumers are increasingly adopting distributed solar applications to reduce their electricity bills. Solar’s cost competitiveness and the strong policy support it enjoys are also key contributors to its rapid expansion.

​China is set to cement its position as the global leader in renewable energy, accounting for 60% of the world’s capacity expansion by 2030. This growth is fueled by the country’s comprehensive policies supporting large-scale and distributed renewable energy technologies. China’s dominance in the renewables sector is driven by cost competitiveness, favorable policy frameworks, and its leadership in manufacturing solar PV components.

Both the European Union and the United States are expected to double their renewable capacity growth between 2024 and 2030. In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits will continue to stimulate growth, while in the EU, competitive auctions and corporate power purchase agreements will drive expansion.

India is set to experience the fastest rate of renewable energy growth among the world’s large economies. The country’s expansion is being driven by a combination of competitive auctions, new support schemes for rooftop PV installations, and stronger financial performance by utility companies. India’s rapid development makes it a key player in the global renewable energy market through 2030.

Despite recent challenges in the wind sector due to supply chain disruptions and financial difficulties, the IEA forecasts a strong recovery. Policy changes in auction design, permitting, and grid connections in key markets such as Europe, the United States, and India are expected to bolster wind energy projects.
Key projections include:

• The global wind capacity expansion rate will double between 2024 and 2030 compared to 2017-2023.
• Wind power generation is set to surpass both nuclear and hydropower by the end of this decade.

The wind sector’s recovery is essential to maintaining a balanced mix of renewable energy sources and meeting long-term sustainability targets.

Hydropower is expected to experience stable growth, driven primarily by China, India, the ASEAN region, and Africa. However, its contribution to overall renewable energy capacity will be overshadowed by the rapid growth of solar and wind power.

​Other renewable technologies, such as bioenergy, geothermal, concentrated solar power, and ocean energy, are expected to decline in prominence due to limited policy support. The IEA predicts that hydrogen will remain a negligible driver for renewable energy growth, accounting for just 4% of total hydrogen production by 2030.

The IEA’s outlook emphasizes that while renewable energy capacity is expected to grow significantly, further policy improvements are needed to fully realize its potential. By 2030, renewables will account for nearly half of global electricity generation, with solar PV and wind power making up 30% of the total.
However, the report warns of growing challenges related to grid infrastructure. Curtailment of wind and solar PV generation has already become a significant issue in some countries, such as Chile, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, where curtailment rates have reached between 5% and 15%. Despite increased investment in battery storage, further measures such as long-term storage and large-scale demand-response systems will be necessary to improve grid flexibility.
At least 1,650 GW of renewable energy projects are currently in advanced stages of development but are waiting for grid connections, highlighting the urgent need for investment in grid infrastructure.

The solar PV manufacturing sector is facing a supply glut, with global solar manufacturing capacity expected to exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024. This oversupply has led to a sharp drop in module prices, which have halved since early 2023, creating negative margins for integrated solar PV manufacturers.
China is expected to maintain its dominance in solar PV manufacturing, accounting for over 80% of global capacity by 2030. Meanwhile, solar cell and module manufacturing is expanding in the United States and India, but costs remain two to three times higher than in China.​In contrast, the wind turbine manufacturing sector is under strain, with global onshore wind manufacturing capacity barely keeping pace with expected installations in 2030. The offshore wind sector is even more vulnerable to supply chain bottlenecks, which could delay project rollouts, particularly in Europe.

The IEA’s Renewable Energy Outlook to 2030 paints a promising picture for the global renewable energy sector. While the pace of growth is accelerating, there is still much work to be done to meet long-term sustainability goals. Key drivers like solar PV and China are leading the charge, but regions such as Europe, the United States, and India are also set for significant growth.
The sector’s future success will depend on addressing challenges related to policy improvements, grid infrastructure, and supply chain constraints, particularly in the wind and solar manufacturing sectors. With the right investments and regulatory frameworks, the renewable energy sector has the potential to reshape global energy markets and drive meaningful progress toward a sustainable future.​As the renewable energy sector accelerates towards 2030, the demand for skilled professionals to lead and implement these ambitious projects is greater than ever. EnableGreen is a global recruitment and executive search firm specializing in sourcing top talent for the Renewable Energy, CleanTech, and Sustainability sectors. With extensive expertise in connecting organizations with professionals who are passionate about driving sustainability initiatives, EnableGreen ensures that companies have the right people in place to meet their renewable energy goals. Whether it’s solar, wind, or emerging technologies, EnableGreen helps businesses bridge the talent gap, providing tailored recruitment solutions that align with the fast-evolving needs of the industry. To learn more about how EnableGreen can support your organization in achieving its sustainability ambitions, visit EnableGreen.